January 15, 2012
The 2012 International CES was the largest in the event’s 44 year history, with a record number of more than 3,100 exhibitors across the largest show floor in CES history – 1.861 million net square feet of exhibit space – and drawing a record of more than 153,000 attendees, including more than 34,000 international attendees. More than 20,000 new products were launched at the 2012 CES, which also featured top executives participating in keynote sessions, including those from Qualcomm, Mercedes, Wal-Mart, Intel, Ford, Verizon, Unilever, Ford, eBay, GE, Google and Face book. Executive delegations from thousands of global companies, from Apple to Zeo, attended the 2012 CES to meet with current and future customers. A notable announcement for 2013 was Microsoft will not be back as a major floor exhibitor. In fact Steve Bulmer will not be the keynote after 13 years ) This has been a growing trend for the past several years as many of the major organizations (Apple has not been at CES for 15 years) want to plan their product announcements at other times of the year. This will not really reduce attendance as most of the larger players have been reducing the size of their exhibits in favour of hosting events off-site in local hotels.
The Device Landscape
We saw few if any game-changing devices on the par with the launch of high-definition, flat panel television sets of tablets. The biggest news was not so much technical improvements as the sheer
number of TV’s, tablets, smart phones and other devices capable of streaming video over an Internet connection that are moving into homes. To understand the market dimensions and landscape, Google reported that are now some 350 million connected devices worldwide that can access video on Google’s You Tube. At the end of September 2012, American’s owned 105.7 million smart phones (up 47% from the same time in 2011); 61.6 million game console (an increase of 34%); 20 million tables (up 488%. By the end of the year we will have 5.4 smart TV’s. Continued growth is expected for both Smart TV’s and tablets as well as the new group of (thin notebooks – a cross between a net book and a laptop). And yes a plethora of e-readers coming from all major suppliers.
How quickly some of these devices will continue to move into homes remains an open question, however, given the ongoing economic woes that turned 2011 into a relatively disappointing year for TV sales! Some of the more advanced feature sets like backlit LEDs, #DTV Sets and Smart TV did not generally live up to manufacture’s expectations. iPad sales for the 4th quarter 2011 are expected to reach 13.8 million. This category of devices is estimated to grow to 0ver 75 million by 2013 (1/4 of the USA population using an iPad). HDTV sets are growing larger with 60” or larger (now available in mid 2012 – 80”) expected to reach sales of 1.3 million units this year.
On line viewing of movies and other content continues to grow. (Now over 82,000 unique full-length TV shows and 19,000 movies are available to be viewed on-line. Viewing choices have proliferated, but navigational schemes have not simplified. Consumers still must laboriously navigate through different apps, screens and devices to see what might be available on Netflix, Amazon or multichannel subscriptions. There is still a real need to bring all content together and make sense of it for the user, so they can access to it via one screen and user interface. Rumored will be Apple TV sometime in 2012 which could offer users unified access to content on TV’s, iPads and iPhones via Apple’s iCloud service. Verizon (a telecom carrier) has already started by making some of its live channels available on Microsoft Xbox 360 and has integrated with Kinect for xBox so that their customers can use voice and gesture commands to control their TV viewing. Better navigation and finding ways for consumers to move easily through all of these choices on different platforms will be the big issue for the next 24 months. Expansion of multiplatform viewing is also increasing and making mobile devices an important tool
Wireless and Mobile devices
No question wireless connectivity and mobility is the current and future way for all forms of communication. Consumers want to be connected –yet not tethered to whatever devices they use. They want to manage where they live remotely – have access to people and undertake whatever activity such as ordering tickets, buying groceries or reading the latest book wherever they might be. Since 1985 over $322 billion has been invested in the wireless industry- not including $40 billion as payment to the US Treasury for spectrum. As of June 2011 there were 322.9 million wireless subscriber connections in the USA. US wireless consumers used almost 1.15 trillion minutes in the 1st half of 2011 (6 billion a day). In 2009 we had only 2.6 billion mobile app downloads – expected to reach 25 billion by 2015 (probably sooner). There are 238 million of the handset operating on wireless carriers’ network capable of browsing the web. This all means a new way of seeing the world, undertaking our daily tasks and challenges for all of in the way we conduct our business and daily lives.
While Apple has had a significant lead with their iPad, the Android-based tablet PC vendors are now coming on strong. Tablets to date have been a roller coaster ride for many vendors. There were over 36 suppliers showing off their latest versions. In the late fall Amazon and Barnes Noble entered the fray with low-priced tablets. The battleground is now in the $150-300 price range. Apple has more of less captured the high end – but watch for Sony, View Sonic and Motorola and perhaps Panasonic to come a calling. If the customer has enough money to buy an iPad they will, but the market for other
applications – reading books etc is still very vibrant. The Kindle fire at $199.00 is gaining market share. Watch for considerable fallout of suppliers during 2012. Many will not have the skills to navigate the marketing and distribution needs of the market. There are still some technical issues around upgrading issues with older Android 2.3 and Honeycomb operating systems to be resolved. Microsoft Windows 8 operating system is their 1st attempt at delivering an OS created from scratch to work with touch screens (Coming shortly). Intel, TI and working hard on chips to increase battery live and so forth. We will also see devices with the ability to better directly connect with other Wi-Fi enabled devices. It looks like $199.00 will the price point for 2012.
The challenge is still around interoperability and access platforms. Android devices are coming quickly to challenge the Apple platform supremacy – Still too soon to see a clear winner. Probably both will have their areas of dominance. A continuing discussion is around consumer access to wireless technology – affordability and will the entire population be able to have access and take advantage. Politicians, educators and other interested bodies continue the dialogue and discussions around the costs associated with bandwidth – should we release more spectrums, allow for free Wi-Fi in all cities and so forth. What will the final picture be about how we fully utilize all of this new science? The picture shown below illustrates adoption rates for broadband services by age, income, education, place living etc. Certainly not something we could not forecast.
A couple of new focus areas were automotive and medical/health related products. In 2011, we saw Ford coming to CES and showing customers how technology could enhance the driving experience of an automobile. Through the introduction of onboard navigation, collision avoidance, hands-free parking and now a host of other refinements the auto industry is clearly hoping to add electronics to their new car offerings. Many of the devices and ideas will be several years before complete introduction. Many applications are offered as add-ons, but everything you can experience for sight and sound in the home is being planned for the automobile. You will have all the capacity to have your mobile office move with you. We continued to see growth in the electronic driven products and solutions around medical and other related health and wellness activities. The iPad mounted on your exercise bike so that you will not be hindered in getting your latest twitter messages or updates from the office. You vital signs and everything in between can now be monitored, broadcast to a data base for future reference and so forth. Even the toilet can captures your daily bowel and urine movements, can undertake an analysis and report the data to your doctor and so forth. Perhaps we go too far with video cameras mounted in a bicycle helmet for you to beam back your progress on your daily run through the bike trail and attached to the shirt of the dedicated runner showing his friends what he doing on his jaunt in the park. Video twitters just like reminding your friends that carrots in the supermarket are on special. Golf carts equipped to allow you the opportunity to share with your friends what you are doing on the course. Along with many forms of personal monitoring, there was as usual electronics for the home. For almost 20 years, we have been talking about the Connected Home- Home Automation and so forth. What does it all mean? Slowly we are inching forward with devices to help you know how much electricity you are using – connection through the wireless world to allow you remotely to close the garage door if for any reason you left it open and were now on the beach in Florida. A device attached to your steak or burger that sends you’re an e-mail when they are cooked. Once again the technology platforms have poised barriers to mass market acceptance. The value proposition for the consumer to know when the milk is getting low in the refrigerator and sends a signal to do something has not been compelling or cost effective. A combination of home security/safety coupled with energy conservation is emerging as a product platform for several suppliers. Many of these are being coupled with audio/visual entertainment in the home. Several groups including Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba, LG, Motorola, Trane, Control 4, and Honeywell are adding new solutions and products. With the entry of two USA carriers AT&T and Verizon along with Rogers in Canada and a few USA electrical utilities now actively promoting in-home connection, we should growth in 2012 and beyond.
We have attached the latest innovations. Perhaps some will never come to market, but there were interesting to see. The Show next year will be January 8-11 2013 – you might to go sometime.
